Calafia Beach Pundit

All continues steadily to the point in an optimistic path.

Calafia beach pundit. I don t see evidence of a coming boom nor of an imminent bust. The risk of covid to the world has been blown all out of proportion and the lockdowns have been totally unnecessary and egregiously expensive. I think the marketplace needs the same thing approximately. Calafia beach pundit edit profile scott grannis was chief economist from 1989 to 2007 at western asset management company a pasadena based manager of fixed income funds for institutional.

I am an investor not a trader. Note also the words written in the sand to the left of the trucks. This site is not intended to provide trading or timing advice. It isn t priced to either a boom or a bust more of the same.

Mind you all of this is happening in a state that enjoys one of the lowest rates of. The vix has peaked but stocks have yet to bottom which calls to mind what happened in the 2008 9 period when the vix peaked months before stocks bottomed. I don t believe conditions in the market change very often. This is an overwhelming summary of all the facts figures and charts that are needed to put the covid 19 crisis into perspective.

In 2007 i retired as chief economist of western asset mgmt a manager of institutional fixed income portfolios. Stocks made new lows today but fear is receding. Blogging is a source of self discipline. My reading of the economic and financial tea leaves would be that the economy is growing at a sub par speed about 2 in the same way it offers for days gone by 8 years.

In my last post august 30th i noted signs of a possible stall in the economy tsa throughput very low real yields high levels of uncerta. The city beach is open but not the state park beach. Here s an instant upgrade of some key signals that i track regularly. So far my guess that last thursday marked the worst of the crash seems to be holding up.

I m told there were police in full riot gear at the pier apparently waiting to repel anti newsom protestors. This is one of the first anti newsom salvos to be fired at the beach. Swap spreads are a great coincident sign of financial market health insurance and a similarly great leading indication of the health of the economy. I urge everyone to read through this and consider the facts and the statistics.